Windows no threat to Linux

Let's face it, if Windows was all of the following, Linux would have always remained a niche very minor player in the computing world.

1) Secure (the OS, without Anti-virus, Anti-Spyware, Anti-name_your_exploit_here
2) Reliable (Geek squad, "PC-Doctor software", BSODs common till XP, ...)
3) Non-Intrusive (Non DRM infected, Second Guess your intelligence, etc)
4) Inexpensive or reasonable return on investment
5) Customer Oriented (i.e. focused on customer needs instead of customer $s)

Either I would still be using Solaris, or, if all the above were true, I might actually have used or be using Windows. The fact is, for myself and probably many tens of millions of Linux desktop users worldwide, and certainly, on the server side where Linux has made phenomenal inroads, the above reasons are what drove/kept us away from Windows.

If the world Linux user base froze today, and not one more person or business deployed Linux, Linux would still be here to stay. There are so many high quality applications for the desktop and server today, and they will continue to get better and better regardless of whether the base grows.

On the other hand, is Linux really a threat to Windows. Well, I think that anyone who thinks that Linux hasn't won and now dominates all web servers simply hasn't moved beyond 2002. How many years ago was it when Microsoft and so many pundits announced that Linux was no threat to MS server sales on the web? Well, we now have the official Denial from Microsoft stating that Linux is no threat on the desktop.

This can only mean that Microsoft is very, very, very worried about Linux on the desktop. Now, the mass OEM market will and is the toughest market to crack, because, unlike on the server where the money is in the OS, and savings of tens to hundreds to millions of dollars is a direct result of NOT using Windows Server offerings. The reasons why the OEM market is harder to crack, you can see the reasons here

This does not mean it won't happen, and is indeed happening. You CAN find smaller OEMs offering Linspire, Xandros, etc, and the Windows monopoly position for desktops is being nibbled away from the edges.

But lets re-examine the initial list. Is Microsoft really trying to address all of these deficiencies and therefore, will they be able to head off the next person, and the next, from moving to Linux on the desktop or their server?

1) Security. I truly believe that Vista is a good start at attempting to secure the Operating System itself instead of relying on third party vendors. I don't believe that anyone, MS included, would state that using Vista without anti-virus and anti-spyware will be normal operating procedures. They would not want this, however, since there is too much money to be made securing their OS. Kinda ironic that deficiencies in their operating system create the market that they will now charge users to protect, but that is a completely new blog in itself.

Now, before the tired old argument comes out where "If Linux were more popular it would be attacked", read this. That dog won't hunt.

2) Reliable. Despite reading lots of angst, and hearing of many delays, I'll currently give MS the benefit of the doubt and assume that Vista will be as reliable as Linux.

3) Non Intrusive. In this respect, Microsoft is about as pro-linux as any company can be. Instead of making Windows less intrusive and less of an actual hastle to use, these and probably more to come/be discovered will ONLY help Linux adoption rates.

WGA Spyware Included
WGA is functioning flawlessly
Which version of Vista do you need?
Admin Pop Ups Done Right
More DRM control

This is the tip of the iceberg. Vista will come with many more controls over what you are allowed to use, and expect a continuing barrage of upgrade offers if you try to save some money and purchase a "cheaper" Vista. Several versions DO NOT even include a media player.

4) Inexpensive. In a world where 8-10% profit margins are considered good, have a look at Windows 77% profit margin, Office System profits of 71.8% here. With the coming confusion with 6 different cost points, MS is hoping that tens of millions of users will just get sick of a crippled version of Vista and download that "Cheap, $99.95 upgrade" (I have no idea what the price, but I am guessing it will be low enough that most just give in) to get an fully functional and feature capable desktop.

5) Customer Oriented. OK, look at 3 and 4 above and tell me with a straight face that the customer comes first. To be fair, Admin Pop Ups are part of security, and not part of the money making machine, and I hope they get it right, but it is still going to erode the "ease of use" advantage Windows has over Linux.

I think that Vista will do two things. It will make Microsoft a LOT of money in the short term and certainly drive Linux desktop adoption to the next level, especially outside the US.

Happy Trails

TripleII